SEMI forecasts wafer shipment growth through 2029

SEMI expects global silicon wafer shipments to increase by 11.8% in 2026, reaching 14,420 million square inches as semiconductor manufacturers respond to demand associated with AI computing infrastructure and memory production. The industry organisation forecasts further growth through 2029, when annual shipments are projected to reach 17,034 million square inches.

The forecast, released on 21 October, anticipates successive annual shipment records from 2027 onwards. SEMI identifies demand for advanced logic devices, high-bandwidth memory and other data centre semiconductors among the principal influences, alongside improving utilisation at mature manufacturing nodes and easing customer inventory adjustments.

Silicon wafers provide the starting material for the fabrication of most semiconductor devices. Manufacturers produce carefully controlled crystalline substrates that pass through repeated deposition, lithography, etching, implantation and other processes to create electronic circuits.

The characteristics of the starting material influence the subsequent manufacturing process. Surface quality, crystal properties, dimensional accuracy and material purity must satisfy the requirements of the semiconductor technology being fabricated, particularly where device dimensions and process tolerances are demanding.

SEMI measures shipments by wafer area rather than simply counting individual substrates. Its figures are expressed in millions of square inches, allowing wafer formats of different diameters to be combined into a common industry measure.

Wafer diameter influences the amount of surface available for device fabrication. A larger wafer offers more area for producing semiconductor dies, although the actual number of usable devices depends on die dimensions, the layout of the wafer and the yield achieved during processing.

Semiconductor manufacturing commonly uses wafers measuring up to 300 mm in diameter, while smaller formats remain in operation for selected technologies and established production processes. The choice of wafer size is linked to the equipment and fabrication process used, so capacity cannot necessarily be transferred directly between different wafer formats.

The published forecast includes polished silicon wafers and epitaxial wafers shipped by manufacturers to end users. Non-polished and reclaimed wafers are excluded, making the figures a defined statistical measure rather than a count of every silicon substrate moving through semiconductor facilities.

Polished wafers provide a prepared crystalline surface for subsequent fabrication. Epitaxial wafers incorporate an additional crystalline layer grown under controlled conditions, allowing material characteristics to be established for particular device requirements.

SEMI identifies demand for advanced epitaxial wafers used in leading-edge logic as one contributor to growth. AI accelerators and other high-performance computing devices rely on advanced semiconductor fabrication processes, creating demand for substrates with the characteristics needed by those manufacturing technologies.

These processors combine large numbers of electronic devices and complex interconnections within individual semiconductor dies. Their fabrication involves many processing stages, and the output achieved from a wafer depends on the dimensions of the devices, process yield and the manufacturing technology selected.

Memory production provides another source of substrate demand. SEMI identifies high-bandwidth memory, server DRAM and enterprise NAND flash as product categories benefiting from continued investment in AI computing infrastructure.

High-bandwidth memory uses multiple DRAM dies assembled into advanced packages, allowing substantial quantities of data to be transferred between memory and processors. Producing the individual dies requires wafer fabrication, while the completed memory assembly also depends on subsequent packaging, interconnection and testing operations.

Growth in HBM demand can therefore increase the requirement for suitable DRAM wafers, but it does not translate directly into an equivalent increase in completed memory packages. The number of finished devices depends on die size, stack configuration, fabrication yield and the capacity of the assembly process.

Server DRAM and enterprise NAND introduce different requirements. DRAM provides working memory for computing systems, while NAND flash supports non-volatile data storage. Their device structures, fabrication processes and density characteristics differ, although both contribute to the overall demand for silicon substrates.

The forecast also identifies recovering utilisation at mature semiconductor nodes. Established fabrication technologies continue to supply components used in industrial control, automotive electronics, power management and many other applications that do not require the most advanced logic process.

Changes in utilisation affect the amount of material entering a fabrication facility. A factory operating below its potential capacity may increase wafer purchases as customer demand improves, while facilities already operating near their practical limits may require additional investment before output can rise substantially.

Customer inventory behaviour is another factor. Semiconductor manufacturers and their customers may alter purchasing in response to available stocks, delivery expectations and projected demand. A period of inventory reduction can suppress wafer shipments even where underlying equipment production continues, while a return towards more typical purchasing patterns can support recovery.

Wafer shipments must nevertheless be distinguished from semiconductor revenue. The same area of silicon can be used for devices with very different manufacturing costs and selling prices. Changes in product mix, fabrication yield and process complexity mean that an increase in shipped wafer area does not establish an equivalent increase in industry sales.

The forecast also does not measure the number of completed chips delivered to equipment manufacturers. Fabricated wafers must pass through further processing, separation, packaging and testing before the finished devices can be incorporated into electronic systems.

The performance of those downstream manufacturing stages can affect final device availability independently of the quantity of silicon material supplied. Shortages of suitable packaging substrates, assembly equipment or testing capacity may constrain output even when sufficient wafers have entered fabrication.

SEMI developed the projections using input from members of its Silicon Manufacturers Group, which operates within the organisation’s Electronic Materials Group. It describes the forecast as an industry assessment rather than an official projection issued by every participating manufacturer.

The expected rise to 17,034 million square inches by 2029 represents a substantial increase in annual substrate demand, but actual shipments will remain dependent on semiconductor investment, factory utilisation, manufacturing technology and purchasing across different product categories.

SEMI’s projected records therefore indicate growth in the area of silicon substrates delivered for fabrication, with the relationship to finished semiconductor output determined by the processes, devices and manufacturing yields associated with those wafers.