IN Brief:
- Worldwide 300mm front-end fab equipment spending is forecast at $149bn in 2026 and $227bn in 2029.
- SEMI expects 20 new fabs or lines to begin construction during 2026, followed by 18 in 2027.
- The latest edition records 166 updates across 163 facilities and lines, including 14 newly added projects.
SEMI has raised its forecast for worldwide 300mm semiconductor fabrication equipment spending to $227 billion in 2029, following a substantial revision to expected investment during 2026. The industry association now anticipates $149 billion of front-end equipment spending this year, an increase of 31% on 2025, as manufacturers expand capacity for advanced logic, memory and other semiconductor processes. Its third-quarter outlook also identifies additional fabrication facilities progressing through construction and towards operation.
The figures mark a material change from the association’s April 2026 outlook, which projected equipment spending of $133 billion in 2026 and $172 billion in 2029. The latest edition therefore adds $16 billion to this year’s projection and $55 billion to the estimate for 2029. Forecast revisions of that size need to be kept separate from orders already delivered or installations completed: the report measures expected capital expenditure rather than equipment physically operating in factories.
The 300mm designation refers to the diameter of silicon wafers processed by the fabrication line. Larger wafers carry more potential die area than smaller formats, although the number of usable chips depends on die dimensions, process yields and edge losses. A 300mm fab also requires a coordinated set of lithography, deposition, etch, cleaning, metrology and inspection equipment; spending on one process stage does not necessarily translate directly into equivalent increases in wafer output.
SEMI expects spending on front-end fabrication tools to grow by 16% in 2027, 12% in 2028 and 18% in 2029. Its latest report continues to put logic and microelectronics, including foundry operations, ahead of memory as the largest equipment-investment segment. Memory expenditure is also projected to increase strongly, as high-bandwidth memory and conventional DRAM and NAND capacity develop alongside demand from AI computing systems.
Construction spending is tracked separately from fabrication equipment expenditure. Across 300mm facilities, SEMI projects that construction spending will rise 23% to $47.5 billion in 2026 and 33% to $63.3 billion in 2027, before reaching $68.4 billion in 2028. These amounts concern physical factory development and should not be added to or confused with the equipment figures as if they described a single identical category of investment.
Excluding pure research and development fabs, construction is expected to begin on 20 new 300mm facilities or production lines worldwide during 2026 and on another 18 in 2027. The US accounts for three projected construction starts this year and four next year. A separate measure counts facilities beginning operation or shipping first silicon, with 13 expected worldwide in 2026 and 23 in 2027. A construction start, first silicon and a mature high-yield production ramp represent different milestones and can be separated by considerable time.
In the Americas, SEMI expects equipment expenditure to rise from $18.1 billion in 2026 to $40.6 billion in 2029, reflecting projects that extend the regional semiconductor manufacturing base. Yet new wafer capacity remains dependent on electricity and water infrastructure, specialist workforce availability, process qualification, and sufficient demand for the devices that ultimately emerge from the production lines.
The outlook database tracks 424 fabs and lines, including pilot and research facilities, and the third-quarter release incorporates 166 changes covering 163 facilities and lines since its previous report, including 14 newly added records. Those revisions explain why comparisons between quarterly forecasts require care: additions, postponements, revised project scopes and changes in spending assumptions can all alter the totals without a corresponding change in chips already produced.
SEMI projects installed worldwide 300mm capacity to rise 7% in 2026 and approximately 8% annually from 2027 to 2029. Those capacity estimates are separate from equipment spending, and neither establishes the utilisation or yield of individual factories. The forecast therefore describes a larger potential manufacturing base rather than an equivalent increase in chips shipped.
